KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

58%

46%

42%

30%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

ICONNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.40u · ICON −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	26.2%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	22.1%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	0.1%	3.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	4.2%	23.0%	0.2%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	19.4%	18.9%	16.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	27.7%	12.2%	32.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	38.2%	24.8%	19.5%	24.8%	28.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	16.3%	—	—	28.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	79.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	77.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	73.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗