KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

47%

40%

29%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.2¢Risks 27.20u

ICONNO 72.8¢Risks 72.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.80u · ICON −72.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	17.3%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	13.7%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	1.3%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	1.9%	13.7%	0.1%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	10.9%	10.6%	8.7%	—	17.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	16.4%	6.0%	20.0%	—	10.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	24.2%	14.0%	10.4%	14.0%	16.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	8.2%	—	—	16.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	81.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	80.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	78.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	78.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	65.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 81°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗