KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

38%

37%

31%

27%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.5¢Risks 16.25u

HRESNO 67.5¢Risks 33.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.75u · HRES −33.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	13.7%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	10.4%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.0%	0.8%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	1.2%	10.2%	0.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	7.9%	7.6%	6.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	12.2%	4.1%	15.1%	—	7.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	18.4%	10.0%	7.2%	10.0%	12.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	5.5%	—	—	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	38%	79.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	79.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗