KOKC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

42%

41%

14%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

ICONNO 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.30u · ICON −72.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	10.1%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.1%	23.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	19.9%	1.1%	0.8%	—	19.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	24.9%	15.2%	0.9%	15.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	77.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	76.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	76.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	70.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	62.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗