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KOKC / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
61%
ICON
39%
AIFS
38%
WN2
28%
HRES
14%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u
VS
HRESNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.65u · HRES −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.3%———3.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.9%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:004.7%———38.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:009.3%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0036.9%———25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0025.2%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0024.4%———30.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0056.9%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:009.1%———32.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:009.3%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0042.1%———40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0040.0%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0084.5%———36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0021.2%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0031.1%———48.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0060.0%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0064.1%———51.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0037.7%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0012.0%———57.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0037.9%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0062.3%———47.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0020.1%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0027.3%—9.5%—61.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0029.0%—6.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0050.0%———66.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0054.3%—2.6%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0050.0%—6.5%—45.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0058.9%—13.8%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0064.6%—1.2%—51.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0029.7%—2.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0015.1%10.5%0.6%59.4%26.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble61%73.8°F8.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON39%68.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single38%69.7°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%68.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES14%64.4°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261027-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗