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KOMA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 13 · 03:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
97%
WN2
89%
HRES
45%
AIFS
17%
ICON
3%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.75u
VS
ICONNO 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.25u · ICON −50.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-09-12T15:20:15+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-09-12T16:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-09-12T16:50:28+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-09-12T17:35:35+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-09-12T18:20:43+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-09-12T19:05:47+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-12T19:50:52+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-12T20:35:59+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-12T21:21:04+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-12T22:06:09+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-12T22:51:15+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-12T23:36:21+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-13T00:21:27+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-13T01:06:34+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-13T01:51:45+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-13T02:36:54+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-13T03:21:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T15:20:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T16:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T16:50:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T17:35:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T18:20:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T19:05:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T19:50:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T20:35:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T21:21:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T22:06:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T22:51:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-12T23:36:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-13T00:21:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-13T01:06:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-13T01:51:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-13T02:36:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-13T03:21:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-09-12T15:20:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-09-12T16:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-09-12T16:50:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T17:35:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T18:20:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T19:05:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T19:50:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T20:35:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T21:21:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T22:06:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-09-12T22:51:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-12T23:36:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-13T00:21:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-13T01:06:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-13T01:51:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-13T02:36:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-13T03:21:59+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T15:20:15+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T16:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T16:50:28+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T17:35:35+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T18:20:43+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T19:05:47+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T19:50:52+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T20:35:59+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T21:21:04+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-09-12T22:06:09+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-12T22:51:15+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-12T23:36:21+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-13T00:21:27+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-13T01:06:34+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-13T01:51:45+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-13T02:36:54+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-13T03:21:59+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T15:20:15+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T16:05:23+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T16:50:28+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T17:35:35+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T18:20:43+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-09-12T19:05:47+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-09-12T19:50:52+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-09-12T20:35:59+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-09-12T21:21:04+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-09-12T22:06:09+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-09-12T22:51:15+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-12T23:36:21+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-13T00:21:27+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-13T01:06:34+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-13T01:51:45+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-13T02:36:54+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-13T03:21:59+00:0009-12 15:2009-12 21:2109-13 03:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-13T03:21:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-12T15:20:15+00:0062.3%96.6%96.0%52.1%5.7%
2026-09-12T16:05:23+00:0062.3%96.6%96.0%52.1%5.7%
2026-09-12T16:50:28+00:0062.3%96.6%96.0%52.1%5.7%
2026-09-12T17:35:35+00:0062.3%96.6%93.4%52.1%5.7%
2026-09-12T18:20:43+00:0062.3%96.6%93.4%52.1%5.7%
2026-09-12T19:05:47+00:0062.3%96.6%93.4%52.1%5.7%
2026-09-12T19:50:52+00:0014.9%96.6%93.4%52.1%3.0%
2026-09-12T20:35:59+00:0014.9%96.6%93.4%52.1%3.0%
2026-09-12T21:21:04+00:0014.9%96.6%93.4%52.1%3.0%
2026-09-12T22:06:09+00:0014.9%96.6%93.4%52.1%3.0%
2026-09-12T22:51:15+00:0014.9%96.6%93.4%44.7%3.0%
2026-09-12T23:36:21+00:0014.9%96.6%88.7%44.7%2.9%
2026-09-13T00:21:27+00:0014.9%96.6%88.7%44.7%2.9%
2026-09-13T01:06:34+00:0014.9%96.6%88.7%44.7%2.9%
2026-09-13T01:51:45+00:0016.7%96.6%88.7%44.7%2.9%
2026-09-13T02:36:54+00:0016.7%96.6%88.7%44.7%2.9%
2026-09-13T03:21:59+00:0016.7%96.6%88.7%44.7%2.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble97%78.6°F4.4°F2026-09-12 00:000.9332
WeatherNext 289%74.6°F3.4°F2026-09-12 12:000.7868
NWS forecast56%71.0°F3.1°F2026-09-12 14:000.3181
National Blend53%70.9°F5.8°F2026-09-12 06:000.2777
IFS HRES45%70.0°F3.8°F2026-09-12 12:000.1998
AIFS Single17%66.5°F4.1°F2026-09-12 18:000.0279
ICON3%63.8°F3.5°F2026-09-12 12:000.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20260913-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗