KOMA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

89%

45%

17%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

ICONNO 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.25u · ICON −50.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	97.6%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	42.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	100.0%	—	—	96.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	94.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	16.7%	—	—	96.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	100.0%	6.5%	—	85.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	52.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	95.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	95.2%	100.0%	—	99.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	99.0%	100.0%	—	95.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	98.6%	—	—	55.7%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	14.3%	95.3%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	98.6%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	98.9%	99.9%	—	—	99.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	99.1%	100.0%	—	—	99.2%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	6.5%	95.1%	71.3%	—	98.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	32.6%	99.6%	—	—	99.7%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	19.0%	87.2%	84.9%	29.4%	97.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	90.4%	93.5%	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	36.1%	99.3%	18.3%	1.7%	85.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	11.8%	16.1%	4.2%	—	43.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	5.1%	26.0%	7.2%	—	45.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	7.4%	5.5%	33.6%	—	51.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	9.5%	74.4%	56.2%	—	70.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	2.4%	98.6%	63.9%	—	81.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.7%	76.0%	56.7%	7.9%	42.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	4.7%	44.4%	—	55.6%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.6%	1.8%	58.6%	1.1%	30.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	7.0%	21.3%	—	9.9%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	19.2%	50.0%	0.0%	7.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	4.5%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	78.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	0.9332
WeatherNext 2	89%	74.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	0.7868
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-12 14:00	0.3181
National Blend	53%	70.9°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 06:00	0.2777
IFS HRES	45%	70.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	0.1998
AIFS Single	17%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	0.0279
ICON	3%	63.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	0.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20260913-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 12 · 15:20 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗