KOMA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

61%

50%

44%

16%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

ICONNO 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.55u · ICON −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:16+00:00	53.6%	78.7%	50.8%	52.5%	62.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00	53.6%	78.7%	50.8%	52.5%	62.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:05+00:00	53.6%	78.7%	68.0%	52.5%	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	53.6%	78.7%	68.0%	52.5%	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	53.6%	78.7%	68.0%	52.5%	62.0%
2026-10-11T07:32:19+00:00	21.3%	78.7%	68.0%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	21.3%	78.7%	68.0%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	21.3%	78.7%	68.0%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	21.3%	78.7%	68.0%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T10:34:01+00:00	21.3%	78.7%	68.0%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T11:20:02+00:00	21.3%	76.5%	34.6%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	21.3%	76.5%	34.6%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	21.3%	76.5%	34.6%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00	69.5%	76.5%	34.6%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00	68.8%	76.1%	34.6%	63.7%	62.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:40+00:00	71.4%	78.1%	58.7%	65.4%	73.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	71.4%	78.1%	58.7%	65.4%	73.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	71.4%	78.1%	60.4%	65.4%	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	71.4%	78.1%	60.4%	65.4%	73.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	71.4%	78.1%	60.4%	65.4%	73.5%
2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:00	72.3%	78.1%	60.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	72.3%	78.1%	60.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	72.3%	78.1%	60.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	72.3%	78.1%	60.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	72.3%	78.1%	60.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:35+00:00	72.3%	78.1%	64.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	72.3%	87.3%	64.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	72.3%	87.3%	64.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	76.2%	87.3%	64.4%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	76.2%	87.1%	64.3%	66.8%	86.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:29+00:00	58.8%	79.5%	51.3%	49.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:31+00:00	58.8%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	58.8%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	58.8%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	58.0%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	58.0%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	58.0%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	58.0%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	58.0%	79.5%	55.1%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	58.0%	83.0%	45.9%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	58.0%	83.0%	45.9%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	58.0%	83.0%	45.9%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	59.0%	83.0%	45.9%	48.9%	20.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	59.0%	82.9%	45.9%	48.9%	20.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	59.0%	76.7%	45.9%	48.9%	20.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	59.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	20.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	59.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	20.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	59.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	20.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	59.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	20.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	59.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	20.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	16.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	16.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	16.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	45.9%	48.9%	16.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	45.9%	50.0%	16.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	44.5%	50.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	44.5%	50.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	58.0%	76.8%	44.5%	50.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	61.0%	76.8%	44.5%	50.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	61.0%	76.8%	44.5%	50.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	61.0%	76.8%	44.5%	50.0%	16.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	61.0%	76.8%	44.5%	50.0%	16.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	62.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0538
AIFS Single	61%	60.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1521
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	56%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
IFS HRES	50%	59.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
WeatherNext 2	44%	59.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3080
ICON	16%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7039

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗