KOMA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

61%

50%

44%

16%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

ICONNO 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.55u · ICON −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	12.6%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	9.0%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	39.6%	0.0%	1.3%	—	51.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	0.2%	75.1%	—	50.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	56.8%	12.5%	54.6%	—	53.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	18.9%	50.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	89.2%	30.8%	70.7%	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	57.6%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	76.6%	50.9%	63.7%	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	81.0%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	71.0%	57.3%	48.2%	—	44.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	65.7%	54.7%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	51.0%	52.9%	42.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	42.0%	51.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	40.8%	47.9%	43.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	41.6%	39.5%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	39.2%	30.1%	37.1%	0.0%	28.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	36.7%	37.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	35.2%	38.5%	32.0%	—	33.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	29.3%	34.7%	30.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	30.9%	34.2%	30.9%	1.8%	33.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	26.9%	36.1%	30.2%	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	23.0%	42.0%	24.0%	0.9%	31.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	26.5%	44.4%	24.2%	—	35.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	41.4%	54.3%	28.0%	4.0%	33.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	45.5%	44.0%	21.3%	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	40.6%	40.6%	14.2%	3.7%	20.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	63.0%	51.6%	29.5%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	62.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0538
AIFS Single	61%	60.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1521
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	56%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
IFS HRES	50%	59.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
WeatherNext 2	44%	59.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3080
ICON	16%	56.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7039

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗