KOMA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

33%

14%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 30.9¢Risks 30.90u

WN2NO 69.1¢Risks 69.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.10u · WN2 −69.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:40+00:00	42.2%	75.0%	24.2%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	42.2%	75.0%	24.2%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	42.2%	75.0%	27.7%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	42.2%	75.0%	27.7%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	42.2%	75.0%	27.7%	35.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	27.7%	35.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	27.7%	35.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	27.7%	35.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	27.7%	35.9%	50.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	27.7%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	39.7%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	25.0%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	50.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	26.5%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	26.5%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	26.5%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	26.5%	75.0%	22.6%	29.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:41+00:00	26.5%	75.0%	22.6%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:55+00:00	26.5%	60.4%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	26.5%	60.4%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	26.5%	60.4%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:26+00:00	22.8%	52.7%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	22.8%	52.7%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	22.8%	52.7%	9.1%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	22.8%	52.7%	7.7%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	22.8%	52.7%	7.7%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	22.8%	52.7%	7.7%	17.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	7.7%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	7.7%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	7.7%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	7.7%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	7.7%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	9.1%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:01+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	9.1%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	23.5%	52.7%	9.1%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	32.9%	52.7%	9.1%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	32.9%	52.7%	9.1%	12.2%	14.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	32.9%	52.7%	9.1%	12.2%	14.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	53%	63.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2777
National Blend	42%	63.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1789
AIFS Single	33%	61.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1082
ICON	14%	59.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0210
IFS HRES	12%	58.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0149
WeatherNext 2	9%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0083

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗