KOMA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

33%

14%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 30.9¢Risks 30.90u

WN2NO 69.1¢Risks 69.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.10u · WN2 −69.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	4.1%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	16.6%	0.0%	0.2%	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.0%	47.8%	—	23.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	27.7%	2.8%	25.8%	—	25.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.0%	4.7%	21.2%	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	65.5%	9.0%	38.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	25.3%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	43.9%	19.6%	29.9%	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	49.1%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	35.6%	23.0%	16.6%	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	29.2%	20.3%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	17.1%	18.3%	12.1%	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	11.4%	16.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	10.3%	13.9%	11.8%	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	10.1%	9.2%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	8.5%	5.3%	7.7%	0.0%	4.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	7.1%	7.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	6.1%	7.2%	5.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.0%	5.5%	4.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.0%	4.9%	4.0%	0.0%	4.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.8%	4.9%	3.5%	—	3.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.9%	6.1%	2.0%	0.0%	3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	2.1%	6.2%	1.8%	—	3.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.7%	8.9%	2.1%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	4.8%	1.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.4%	3.4%	0.4%	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.2%	5.3%	1.4%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3036
IFS Ensemble	53%	63.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2777
National Blend	42%	63.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1789
AIFS Single	33%	61.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1082
ICON	14%	59.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0210
IFS HRES	12%	58.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0149
WeatherNext 2	9%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0083

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗