KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

71%

62%

44%

25%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

ICONNO 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.90u · ICON −49.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:19+00:00	40.8%	63.4%	65.4%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	40.8%	63.4%	65.4%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	40.8%	63.4%	65.4%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	40.8%	63.4%	65.4%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:01+00:00	40.8%	63.4%	65.4%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:02+00:00	40.8%	60.6%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	40.8%	60.6%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	40.8%	60.6%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:51+00:00	64.0%	60.6%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00	64.0%	60.6%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:53+00:00	64.0%	62.7%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	64.0%	62.7%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	64.0%	62.7%	49.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	64.0%	62.7%	53.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	64.0%	62.7%	53.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	64.0%	62.7%	53.2%	74.6%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	53.2%	54.4%	74.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	53.2%	54.4%	74.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	53.2%	54.4%	74.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	53.2%	54.4%	74.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	53.2%	54.4%	74.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	43.6%	54.4%	74.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	43.6%	54.4%	74.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:14+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	43.6%	54.4%	74.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:23+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	43.6%	54.4%	74.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	43.6%	54.4%	74.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	50.7%	62.7%	43.6%	54.4%	74.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	63.9%	61.9%	69.7%	45.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	63.9%	61.9%	69.7%	45.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	63.9%	61.9%	62.1%	45.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	63.9%	61.9%	62.1%	45.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	63.9%	61.9%	62.1%	45.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	63.9%	61.9%	62.1%	45.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	62.1%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	62.1%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	62.1%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	62.1%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	62.9%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	59.5%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	75.4%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	75.4%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	75.4%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	71.2%	61.9%	75.4%	43.6%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	67.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0605
AIFS Single	71%	67.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0829
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1452
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	44%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
ICON	25%	63.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗