KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

71%

62%

44%

25%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

ICONNO 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.90u · ICON −49.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	63.8%	34.3%	0.6%	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	84.4%	46.4%	42.7%	—	53.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	68.4%	51.5%	43.9%	—	52.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	62.5%	21.8%	42.9%	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	28.6%	33.0%	31.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	13.2%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	46.5%	66.2%	25.5%	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	34.2%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	42.7%	60.0%	16.6%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	35.2%	53.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	36.6%	47.1%	21.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	35.3%	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	34.0%	52.1%	25.1%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	31.6%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	28.2%	51.1%	23.8%	—	24.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	26.7%	48.9%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	22.4%	57.0%	26.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	32.5%	57.2%	25.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	38.9%	62.3%	25.6%	22.7%	30.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	41.0%	55.1%	23.8%	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	35.6%	55.4%	18.2%	23.0%	26.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	54.2%	58.3%	17.3%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	65.5%	65.5%	23.4%	52.9%	42.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	68.9%	53.0%	15.3%	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	63.9%	56.3%	11.0%	57.9%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	92.1%	67.6%	37.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	67.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0605
AIFS Single	71%	67.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0829
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1452
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	44%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
ICON	25%	63.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗