KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

36%

27%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

ICONNO 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.30u · ICON −72.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:26+00:00	47.4%	53.8%	35.3%	26.1%	44.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	47.4%	53.8%	35.3%	26.1%	44.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	47.4%	53.8%	35.3%	26.1%	44.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	47.4%	53.8%	28.6%	26.1%	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	47.4%	53.8%	28.6%	26.1%	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	47.4%	53.8%	28.6%	26.1%	44.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:01+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	45.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	28.6%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	37.4%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	37.4%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	51.7%	53.8%	37.4%	20.6%	41.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:57+00:00	51.9%	53.8%	37.4%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	51.9%	53.8%	37.4%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	51.9%	53.8%	37.4%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	51.9%	53.8%	37.4%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:33+00:00	51.9%	53.8%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	51.9%	53.8%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	51.9%	54.0%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	51.9%	54.0%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	49.1%	54.0%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	49.1%	54.0%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	31.7%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	24.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	38.3%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	49.1%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:29+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	37.2%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:31+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	47.2%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	23.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	44.1%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	44.1%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	44.1%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	44.1%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	44.1%	49.0%	42.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	44.1%	50.9%	34.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	44.1%	50.9%	34.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	44.1%	50.9%	34.9%	24.4%	10.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	42.2%	50.9%	34.9%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	42.2%	50.9%	34.9%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	42.2%	43.6%	34.9%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	42.2%	43.6%	34.9%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	42.2%	43.6%	34.9%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	42.2%	43.6%	38.6%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	42.2%	43.6%	38.6%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	42.2%	43.6%	38.6%	21.8%	10.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	38.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	38.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	38.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	38.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	38.6%	27.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	36.1%	27.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	36.1%	27.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	46.1%	43.6%	36.1%	27.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	47.1%	43.6%	36.1%	27.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	47.1%	43.6%	36.1%	27.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	47.1%	43.6%	36.1%	27.1%	8.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	47.1%	43.6%	36.1%	27.1%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
AIFS Single	47%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2798
IFS Ensemble	44%	66.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3181
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3493
WeatherNext 2	36%	66.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4083
IFS HRES	27%	65.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5314
ICON	8%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.8409

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗