KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

36%

27%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

ICONNO 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.30u · ICON −72.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	2.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	50.0%	22.4%	0.2%	—	38.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	74.0%	32.3%	29.1%	—	39.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	53.8%	36.5%	29.6%	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	46.8%	11.9%	28.1%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	16.2%	19.5%	18.4%	—	12.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	6.1%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	29.9%	49.1%	13.6%	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	25.9%	41.8%	7.6%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	19.6%	35.2%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	20.3%	28.7%	9.8%	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	19.0%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	17.6%	32.1%	11.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	15.6%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	13.1%	30.1%	10.4%	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	11.8%	27.6%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	9.0%	34.1%	11.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	14.5%	33.6%	10.2%	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	18.2%	37.7%	10.0%	8.5%	13.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	19.1%	30.2%	8.7%	—	10.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	14.9%	29.5%	5.7%	7.9%	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	27.6%	31.2%	5.0%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	37.2%	37.2%	7.3%	25.6%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	39.5%	24.8%	3.7%	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	33.1%	26.3%	2.2%	27.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	71.9%	35.5%	12.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
AIFS Single	47%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2798
IFS Ensemble	44%	66.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3181
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3493
WeatherNext 2	36%	66.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4083
IFS HRES	27%	65.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5314
ICON	8%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.8409

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗