KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

39%

36%

26%

20%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

HRESNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.50u · HRES −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:40+00:00	30.2%	45.3%	22.1%	35.8%	63.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	30.2%	45.3%	22.1%	35.8%	63.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	30.2%	45.3%	23.4%	35.8%	63.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	30.2%	45.3%	23.4%	35.8%	63.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	30.2%	45.3%	23.4%	35.8%	63.9%
2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:00	8.4%	45.3%	23.4%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	8.4%	45.3%	23.4%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	8.4%	45.3%	23.4%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	8.4%	45.3%	23.4%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	8.4%	45.3%	23.4%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:35+00:00	8.4%	45.3%	19.0%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	8.4%	44.5%	19.0%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	8.4%	44.5%	19.0%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	37.4%	44.5%	19.0%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	37.4%	44.6%	19.1%	18.8%	80.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:08+00:00	44.0%	46.6%	33.9%	35.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	44.0%	46.6%	35.5%	35.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	44.0%	46.6%	35.5%	35.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	44.0%	46.6%	35.5%	35.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	44.0%	46.6%	35.5%	35.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00	31.2%	46.6%	35.5%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	31.2%	46.6%	35.5%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	31.2%	46.6%	35.5%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	31.2%	46.6%	35.5%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	31.2%	56.4%	35.7%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	31.2%	56.4%	35.7%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	31.2%	56.4%	35.7%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	31.2%	56.4%	35.7%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	32.1%	56.4%	35.8%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	32.1%	59.5%	35.8%	14.1%	58.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00	38.1%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	29.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	38.1%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	29.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	38.1%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	29.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	38.1%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	29.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	38.1%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	29.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	38.1%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	29.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	47.4%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	35.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	47.4%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	35.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	47.4%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	35.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	47.4%	59.5%	27.2%	13.7%	35.4%
2026-10-14T10:33:41+00:00	47.4%	59.5%	27.2%	20.0%	35.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	47.4%	51.0%	25.9%	20.0%	35.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	47.4%	51.0%	25.9%	20.0%	35.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	47.4%	51.0%	25.9%	20.0%	35.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	38.9%	51.0%	25.9%	20.0%	35.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	38.9%	51.0%	25.9%	20.0%	36.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	51%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2401
AIFS Single	39%	67.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3733
ICON	36%	66.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4070
National Blend	34%	67.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.4382
WeatherNext 2	26%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5491
IFS HRES	20%	64.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.6400

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗