KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

39%

36%

26%

20%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

HRESNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.50u · HRES −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	43.0%	17.5%	0.1%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	67.7%	26.0%	23.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	46.2%	29.6%	23.4%	—	30.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	39.0%	8.4%	21.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	11.6%	14.3%	13.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	3.9%	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	22.8%	40.5%	9.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	14.0%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	19.0%	33.0%	4.8%	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	13.7%	26.9%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	14.2%	21.0%	6.2%	—	8.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	13.0%	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	11.8%	23.5%	7.4%	—	8.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	10.1%	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	8.1%	21.3%	6.2%	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	7.1%	19.0%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	5.1%	24.2%	6.5%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	8.7%	23.4%	5.8%	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	11.2%	26.6%	5.5%	4.6%	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	11.5%	20.0%	4.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	8.4%	19.1%	2.8%	4.0%	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	17.3%	20.1%	2.3%	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	24.5%	24.5%	3.5%	15.4%	10.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	26.0%	14.4%	1.5%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	20.3%	15.2%	0.8%	16.1%	5.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	56.6%	21.6%	5.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	51%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2401
AIFS Single	39%	67.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3733
ICON	36%	66.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4070
National Blend	34%	67.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.4382
WeatherNext 2	26%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5491
IFS HRES	20%	64.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.6400

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗