KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

24%

19%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

HRESNO 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.45u · HRES −74.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:31+00:00	24.3%	31.6%	9.5%	11.7%	71.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	24.3%	33.6%	9.5%	11.7%	71.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	24.3%	33.6%	18.5%	11.7%	71.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	24.3%	33.6%	18.5%	11.7%	71.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	24.3%	33.6%	18.5%	11.7%	71.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	24.3%	33.6%	18.5%	11.7%	71.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	18.5%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	18.5%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	18.5%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	18.5%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	19.7%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	19.7%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	19.7%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	26.7%	33.6%	19.7%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	29.9%	33.6%	19.7%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	29.9%	33.6%	19.7%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	29.9%	33.6%	19.7%	24.6%	55.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00	19.3%	43.6%	19.7%	7.8%	44.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	19.3%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	44.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	19.3%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	44.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	19.3%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	44.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	19.3%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	44.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	19.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	19.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	19.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	19.7%	8.1%	19.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	19.7%	7.8%	19.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	13.7%	7.5%	19.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	13.7%	7.5%	19.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	15.1%	43.6%	13.7%	7.5%	19.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	24.0%	43.6%	13.7%	7.5%	19.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	24.0%	43.6%	13.7%	7.5%	19.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3047
IFS Ensemble	44%	69.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	24%	67.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.5776
ICON	19%	65.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.6512
WeatherNext 2	14%	66.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.7448
IFS HRES	8%	62.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.8556

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗