KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

24%

19%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

HRESNO 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.45u · HRES −74.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	29.8%	9.9%	0.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	53.6%	15.6%	13.6%	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	31.6%	17.9%	13.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	24.8%	3.8%	11.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	5.3%	6.9%	6.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	1.4%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	11.8%	24.8%	3.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	6.3%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	9.0%	18.4%	1.7%	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	5.9%	13.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	5.9%	9.8%	2.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	5.1%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	4.4%	10.8%	2.5%	—	2.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.5%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	2.6%	9.0%	1.9%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.1%	7.5%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.3%	10.0%	1.8%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.5%	9.2%	1.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.3%	10.6%	1.3%	1.0%	2.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.2%	6.8%	1.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.0%	6.1%	0.5%	0.8%	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	5.0%	6.2%	0.4%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.8%	7.8%	0.5%	4.0%	2.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.0%	3.4%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.2%	3.4%	0.1%	3.7%	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	25.4%	5.3%	0.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3047
IFS Ensemble	44%	69.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	24%	67.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.5776
ICON	19%	65.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.6512
WeatherNext 2	14%	66.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.7448
IFS HRES	8%	62.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.8556

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗