KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

80%

57%

56%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.6¢Risks 72.60u

ICONNO 27.4¢Risks 27.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.40u · ICON −27.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:00+00:00	86.9%	81.9%	85.0%	60.6%	57.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	86.9%	81.9%	91.4%	60.6%	57.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	86.9%	81.9%	91.4%	60.6%	57.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	86.9%	81.9%	91.4%	60.6%	57.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00	87.6%	81.9%	91.4%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	87.6%	81.9%	91.4%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	87.6%	81.9%	91.4%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	87.6%	81.9%	91.4%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	87.6%	81.9%	91.4%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	87.6%	84.0%	94.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	87.6%	84.0%	94.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	87.6%	84.0%	94.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	86.6%	84.0%	94.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	86.6%	83.6%	94.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	86.6%	79.8%	94.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	86.6%	79.8%	94.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	86.6%	79.8%	90.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	86.6%	79.8%	90.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	86.6%	79.8%	90.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	86.6%	79.8%	90.7%	69.6%	60.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	90.7%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	90.7%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	90.7%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	90.7%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	89.6%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	89.6%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	89.6%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	85.5%	79.8%	89.6%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	88.6%	79.8%	89.6%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	88.6%	79.8%	89.6%	56.8%	55.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	88.6%	79.8%	89.6%	56.8%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0108
AIFS Single	89%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0130
IFS Ensemble	80%	67.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0408
IFS HRES	57%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1866
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
ICON	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1971

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗