KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

80%

57%

56%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.6¢Risks 72.60u

ICONNO 27.4¢Risks 27.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.40u · ICON −27.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	52.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	2.5%	80.6%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	73.1%	8.5%	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	89.0%	22.1%	65.0%	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	75.5%	66.3%	53.8%	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	52.4%	67.0%	41.3%	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	71.4%	26.5%	36.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	7.0%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	52.6%	13.1%	43.0%	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	42.0%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	33.9%	68.6%	32.2%	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	53.8%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	42.3%	67.8%	44.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	48.0%	58.0%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	50.0%	70.6%	55.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	57.4%	86.8%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	62.9%	90.6%	56.5%	0.0%	44.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	64.3%	88.2%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	59.2%	87.9%	40.8%	64.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	58.4%	88.6%	46.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	75.4%	84.9%	47.5%	—	55.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	77.2%	78.1%	41.0%	—	48.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	71.6%	76.0%	42.0%	73.9%	42.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	92.4%	54.2%	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	96.0%	70.7%	35.8%	58.6%	60.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	92.5%	68.9%	33.8%	—	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	93.4%	82.9%	39.1%	59.4%	69.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	98.6%	93.7%	75.9%	—	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	67.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0108
AIFS Single	89%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0130
IFS Ensemble	80%	67.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0408
IFS HRES	57%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1866
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
ICON	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1971

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗