KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

69%

45%

33%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.65u · ICON −41.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00	76.2%	64.4%	73.0%	37.6%	33.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	76.2%	64.4%	88.4%	37.6%	33.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	76.2%	64.4%	88.4%	37.6%	33.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	76.2%	64.4%	88.4%	37.6%	33.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	76.2%	64.4%	88.4%	37.6%	33.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00	79.2%	64.4%	88.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	79.2%	64.4%	88.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	79.2%	64.4%	88.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	79.2%	64.4%	88.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	79.2%	69.8%	86.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	79.2%	69.8%	86.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	79.2%	69.8%	86.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	79.2%	69.8%	86.4%	55.3%	37.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	70.3%	69.3%	86.4%	55.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	70.3%	69.3%	86.4%	55.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	86.4%	55.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	86.4%	55.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	55.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	55.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	55.4%	37.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	79.5%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	70.3%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	72.0%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	84.1%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	84.1%	44.6%	32.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	78.4%	68.7%	84.1%	44.6%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	68.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	67.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	65.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	33%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗