KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

69%

45%

33%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.65u · ICON −41.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	1.1%	70.0%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	87.0%	60.4%	4.2%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	80.6%	12.8%	50.7%	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	62.0%	51.5%	38.7%	—	54.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	36.7%	51.6%	26.8%	—	37.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	55.8%	14.8%	22.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	2.8%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	35.4%	5.9%	26.9%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	25.7%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	19.0%	50.9%	17.8%	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	35.2%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	24.7%	49.0%	26.3%	—	27.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	29.1%	38.2%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	30.3%	51.0%	34.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	36.5%	72.1%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	41.3%	77.8%	35.1%	0.0%	24.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	42.2%	73.3%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	36.3%	72.0%	20.7%	41.9%	24.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	34.7%	72.7%	24.4%	—	27.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	52.5%	65.8%	24.6%	—	30.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	53.9%	55.1%	19.1%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	46.0%	51.3%	19.1%	48.7%	19.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	76.8%	27.6%	15.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	84.6%	42.8%	13.8%	30.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	68.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	67.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	65.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	33%	63.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗