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KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
65%
EPS
48%
WN2
35%
AIFS
32%
ICON
6%
Consensus
41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u
VS
ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.50u · ICON −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:36+00:0032.1%48.0%34.6%64.7%6.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:0032.1%48.0%34.6%64.7%6.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:0032.1%48.0%34.6%64.7%6.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:0032.1%48.0%34.6%64.7%6.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:0032.1%48.0%34.6%64.7%6.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES65%73.9°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend56%72.0°F3.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%71.2°F5.9°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%69.4°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
AIFS Single32%68.9°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON6%56.4°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗