KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

48%

35%

32%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.50u · ICON −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	4.6%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	31.1%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	52.8%	21.4%	0.3%	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	40.6%	1.3%	14.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	20.0%	13.4%	7.6%	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	6.2%	12.3%	3.4%	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.4%	1.1%	2.2%	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.1%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	4.5%	0.2%	2.7%	—	4.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.2%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.2%	8.6%	1.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	3.6%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.6%	6.8%	1.8%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.9%	6.4%	2.6%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	2.6%	15.6%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.1%	19.0%	2.1%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.9%	14.1%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.8%	12.1%	0.5%	2.5%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.4%	11.4%	0.6%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	3.5%	7.1%	0.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.2%	3.5%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.2%	2.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	8.6%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	12.2%	0.9%	0.1%	0.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	65%	73.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	71.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	69.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	68.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	56.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗