KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

80%

65%

61%

48%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.3¢Risks 69.35u

ICONNO 30.6¢Risks 30.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.65u · ICON −30.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:01+00:00	82.0%	66.1%	72.3%	52.4%	59.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	82.0%	66.1%	74.9%	52.4%	59.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	82.0%	66.1%	74.9%	52.4%	59.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	82.0%	66.1%	74.9%	52.4%	59.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00	76.6%	66.1%	74.9%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	76.6%	66.1%	74.9%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	76.6%	66.1%	74.9%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	76.6%	66.1%	74.9%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	76.6%	66.1%	74.9%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	76.6%	68.1%	77.1%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	76.6%	68.1%	77.1%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	76.6%	68.1%	77.1%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	61.9%	68.1%	77.1%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	61.9%	67.8%	77.1%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	61.9%	63.5%	77.1%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	61.9%	63.5%	77.1%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	61.9%	63.5%	72.4%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	61.9%	63.5%	72.4%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	61.9%	63.5%	72.4%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	61.9%	63.5%	72.4%	55.3%	47.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	72.4%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	72.4%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	72.4%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	72.4%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	54.7%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	54.7%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	54.7%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	69.6%	63.5%	54.7%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	82.5%	63.5%	54.7%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	82.5%	63.5%	54.7%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	82.5%	63.5%	54.7%	49.1%	52.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	79.9%	59.7%	75.1%	58.7%	57.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	79.9%	59.8%	75.1%	58.7%	57.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	79.9%	59.8%	75.1%	58.7%	57.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	79.9%	59.8%	75.1%	58.7%	57.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	79.9%	59.8%	75.1%	58.7%	57.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	79.9%	59.8%	75.1%	58.7%	57.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	75.1%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	75.1%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	75.1%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	75.1%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	75.1%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	81.2%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	79.0%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	91.7%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	91.7%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	85.0%	59.8%	91.7%	48.1%	48.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	83.3%	59.8%	91.7%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	83.3%	59.8%	91.7%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	83.3%	59.8%	91.7%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	83.3%	59.8%	91.7%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	83.3%	59.8%	91.7%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	83.3%	64.9%	91.0%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	83.3%	64.9%	91.0%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	83.3%	64.9%	91.0%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	79.9%	64.9%	91.0%	60.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	79.9%	64.9%	91.0%	60.6%	47.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	72.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	70.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗