KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

80%

65%

61%

48%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.3¢Risks 69.35u

ICONNO 30.6¢Risks 30.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.65u · ICON −30.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	75.6%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	69.9%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	1.6%	84.1%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	64.4%	19.4%	0.6%	—	60.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	75.1%	48.5%	43.4%	—	46.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	62.0%	55.3%	34.4%	—	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	53.2%	62.5%	20.6%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	58.3%	63.9%	40.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	19.0%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	53.5%	60.4%	32.2%	—	37.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	50.0%	48.2%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	45.4%	46.3%	40.9%	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	35.2%	54.7%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	40.4%	54.9%	42.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	44.0%	63.7%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	44.9%	68.8%	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	55.3%	64.5%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	60.8%	64.9%	35.1%	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	57.8%	59.0%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	52.3%	61.5%	25.1%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	65.3%	48.8%	31.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	62.3%	51.2%	30.9%	62.3%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	70.9%	62.7%	30.2%	—	36.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	63.2%	65.7%	28.4%	71.6%	42.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	83.6%	68.8%	31.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	87.0%	66.9%	38.6%	81.8%	55.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	70.2%	36.6%	—	48.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	72.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	70.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	69.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗