KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

61%

50%

40%

27%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

ICONNO 51.9¢Risks 51.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.90u · ICON −51.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:16+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	31.7%	31.9%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	60.5%	31.9%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	60.5%	31.9%	32.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	60.5%	31.9%	32.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	60.5%	31.9%	32.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00	69.8%	45.4%	60.5%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	69.8%	45.4%	60.5%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	69.8%	45.4%	60.5%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	69.8%	45.4%	60.5%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	69.8%	43.3%	51.3%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	69.8%	43.3%	51.3%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	69.8%	43.3%	51.3%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	69.8%	43.3%	51.3%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	63.5%	43.5%	51.3%	39.4%	35.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	74.3%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	74.3%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	74.3%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	56.8%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	56.8%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	56.8%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	56.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	56.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	56.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	56.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	56.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	60.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	60.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	60.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	60.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	60.8%	40.4%	26.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	60.8%	40.4%	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	72.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	0.4830
WeatherNext 2	61%	71.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.3697
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	0.3181
IFS Ensemble	50%	70.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	40%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.1632
ICON	27%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	0.0713
National Blend	25%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	0.0620

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗