KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

34%

22%

19%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.1¢Risks 33.15u

ICONNO 66.8¢Risks 66.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.85u · ICON −66.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	19.3%	34.5%	30.5%	31.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	19.3%	34.5%	30.5%	31.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	19.3%	34.5%	32.2%	31.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	19.3%	34.5%	32.2%	31.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	19.3%	34.5%	32.2%	31.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	19.3%	34.5%	32.2%	31.4%	44.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	46.8%	34.5%	32.2%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	46.8%	34.5%	32.2%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	46.8%	34.5%	32.2%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	46.8%	34.5%	32.2%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	46.8%	34.5%	33.1%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	46.8%	34.5%	33.1%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	46.8%	34.5%	33.1%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	27.9%	34.5%	33.1%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	27.9%	34.5%	33.1%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	27.9%	34.5%	33.1%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	27.9%	34.5%	33.1%	33.9%	48.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	50.0%	33.6%	34.0%	21.7%	11.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	50.0%	33.6%	34.0%	21.7%	11.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	50.0%	33.6%	44.5%	21.7%	11.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	50.0%	33.6%	44.5%	21.7%	11.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	50.0%	33.6%	44.5%	21.7%	11.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	47.4%	33.6%	44.5%	21.7%	18.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	47.4%	33.6%	44.5%	21.7%	18.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	47.4%	33.6%	44.5%	21.7%	18.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	47.4%	33.6%	44.5%	21.7%	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	72.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	70.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	69.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗