KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

44%

34%

22%

19%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.1¢Risks 33.15u

ICONNO 66.8¢Risks 66.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.85u · ICON −66.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	52.5%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	44.8%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.2%	62.6%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	36.9%	5.8%	0.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	47.8%	22.1%	18.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	32.3%	26.4%	12.2%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	23.6%	31.6%	5.3%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	26.5%	31.5%	14.3%	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	4.1%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	21.4%	26.9%	9.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	18.4%	17.2%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	14.9%	15.4%	12.4%	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	9.2%	20.3%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	11.1%	19.7%	12.1%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.4%	25.7%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	12.3%	29.4%	6.7%	0.0%	6.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	17.6%	24.5%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	20.6%	23.8%	7.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	17.5%	18.3%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	13.4%	19.1%	3.3%	0.0%	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	20.8%	10.8%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	17.4%	11.2%	4.0%	17.4%	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	22.8%	16.6%	3.5%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	15.7%	17.3%	2.8%	22.0%	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	33.8%	18.2%	3.0%	—	8.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	37.2%	15.4%	4.0%	29.3%	9.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	16.2%	3.2%	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	72.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	70.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	69.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗