KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

16%

15%

15%

13%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

HRESNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.30u · HRES −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:27+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	28.1%	29.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	28.1%	29.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	28.1%	29.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	29.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	29.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	29.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	22.6%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:01+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	31.5%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	19.0%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	21.4%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	21.4%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	32.1%	11.7%	21.4%	16.9%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00	30.7%	11.7%	21.4%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	30.7%	11.7%	21.4%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	30.7%	11.7%	21.4%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	30.7%	11.7%	21.4%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:33+00:00	30.7%	11.7%	15.9%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	30.7%	11.7%	15.9%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	30.7%	21.9%	15.9%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	30.7%	21.9%	15.9%	20.3%	30.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	10.2%	21.9%	15.9%	20.3%	31.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	10.2%	21.9%	15.9%	20.3%	31.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:31+00:00	16.2%	18.4%	17.8%	22.3%	35.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	16.2%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	35.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	16.2%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	35.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	16.2%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	35.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	30.8%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	30.8%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	30.8%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	30.8%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	30.8%	18.4%	21.8%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	30.8%	18.0%	18.0%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	30.8%	18.0%	18.0%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	30.8%	18.0%	18.0%	22.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	24.3%	18.0%	18.0%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	24.2%	18.4%	18.0%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	24.2%	14.7%	18.0%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	24.2%	14.7%	18.0%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	24.2%	14.7%	18.0%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	24.2%	14.7%	20.2%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	24.2%	14.7%	20.2%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	24.2%	14.7%	20.2%	15.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	20.2%	15.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	20.2%	15.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	20.2%	15.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	20.2%	15.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	20.2%	12.7%	16.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	15.4%	12.7%	16.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	15.4%	12.7%	16.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	26.3%	14.7%	15.4%	12.7%	16.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	34.7%	14.7%	15.4%	12.7%	16.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	34.7%	14.7%	15.4%	12.7%	16.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	34.7%	14.7%	15.4%	12.7%	16.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	34.7%	14.7%	15.4%	12.7%	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	16%	69.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗