KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

16%

15%

15%

13%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

HRESNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.30u · HRES −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	40.1%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	32.4%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	0.1%	49.3%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	24.6%	2.7%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	33.7%	12.8%	10.3%	—	11.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	20.0%	15.5%	6.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	13.1%	18.9%	2.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	14.8%	18.4%	6.9%	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.5%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	10.9%	14.6%	3.8%	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.8%	8.1%	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.6%	7.0%	5.3%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	3.6%	9.6%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	4.4%	9.0%	4.9%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	4.9%	12.4%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	4.7%	14.5%	2.2%	0.0%	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	7.2%	11.1%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	8.5%	10.4%	2.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	6.7%	7.1%	0.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	4.5%	7.2%	0.8%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	7.8%	3.3%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	5.9%	3.3%	0.9%	5.9%	2.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	8.2%	5.3%	0.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.6%	5.3%	0.5%	7.4%	1.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	13.2%	5.4%	0.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	14.6%	4.0%	0.7%	10.2%	2.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	4.1%	0.4%	—	1.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	16%	69.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗