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KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
48%
HRES
44%
WN2
33%
EPS
24%
AIFS
11%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 29.7¢Risks 29.70u
VS
AIFSNO 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.30u · AIFS −70.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00AIFS Single: 32.8% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.3% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.3% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.3% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.3% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.5% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.3% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.9% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.9% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:0010-13 11:0510-13 18:4210-14 02:14
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:0032.8%21.3%21.6%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:0032.8%21.3%21.6%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:0032.8%21.3%21.6%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:0032.8%21.3%21.6%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:0041.5%21.3%21.7%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:0041.5%24.5%21.7%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:0041.5%24.5%21.7%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:0041.5%24.5%21.7%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:0041.5%24.5%27.3%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:0041.5%24.5%27.3%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:0041.5%24.5%27.3%39.4%6.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:0034.8%24.5%27.3%39.4%48.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:0034.8%24.5%27.3%39.4%48.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:0034.8%24.5%27.3%39.4%48.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:0034.8%24.5%27.3%39.4%48.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:0034.8%24.5%27.3%43.7%48.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:0034.8%24.5%32.9%43.7%48.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:0034.8%24.5%32.9%43.7%48.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:0034.8%24.5%32.9%43.7%48.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:0011.0%24.5%32.9%43.7%48.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:0011.0%24.5%32.9%43.7%48.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%76.0°F4.0°F2026-10-13 06:00Pending
ICON48%75.1°F9.9°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS HRES44%74.5°F6.3°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 233%73.3°F5.0°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble24%72.4°F4.5°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single11%68.6°F5.6°F2026-10-13 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗