KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

44%

33%

24%

11%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

AIFSNO 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.30u · AIFS −70.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	34.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	26.8%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	42.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	19.4%	1.8%	0.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	27.2%	9.3%	7.4%	—	8.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	15.1%	11.4%	4.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	9.3%	14.0%	1.3%	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	10.4%	13.4%	4.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.9%	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	7.3%	10.1%	2.3%	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	5.2%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	4.1%	4.3%	3.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	2.1%	6.1%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	2.5%	5.6%	2.9%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.8%	8.0%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.6%	9.4%	1.2%	0.0%	1.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	4.2%	6.8%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	5.0%	6.2%	1.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	3.8%	4.0%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.4%	4.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	4.3%	1.6%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	3.0%	1.6%	0.4%	3.0%	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.3%	2.6%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.2%	2.6%	0.2%	3.7%	0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.1%	2.5%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.8%	1.8%	0.2%	5.1%	0.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	48%	75.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	74.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	72.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	68.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗