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KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
46%
HRES
20%
AIFS
20%
WN2
16%
EPS
5%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 25.7¢Risks 25.70u
VS
EPSNO 74.3¢Risks 74.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.30u · EPS −74.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00AIFS Single: 26.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 26.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 26.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 37.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00ICON: 46.1% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0010-13 08:0310-14 07:3110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:0026.7%31.2%21.6%33.5%5.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:0026.7%31.2%21.6%33.5%5.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:0026.7%31.2%21.6%33.5%5.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:0026.7%31.2%21.6%33.5%5.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:008.0%18.1%26.0%37.6%44.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:008.0%18.1%26.0%37.6%44.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:008.0%18.1%26.0%37.6%44.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:008.0%18.1%26.0%37.6%44.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:008.0%18.1%26.0%37.6%44.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:008.0%18.1%26.0%37.6%44.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:0011.7%18.1%26.0%37.6%46.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:0011.7%18.1%26.0%37.6%46.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:0011.7%18.1%26.0%37.6%46.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:0011.7%18.1%26.0%37.6%46.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:0011.7%18.1%26.0%20.1%46.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:0011.7%5.3%15.3%20.1%46.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:0011.7%5.3%15.3%20.1%46.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:0011.7%5.3%15.3%20.1%46.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:0018.8%5.3%15.3%20.1%46.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0019.7%5.3%15.7%20.2%46.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%77.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending
ICON46%75.8°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend34%75.0°F3.5°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS HRES20%71.0°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single20%71.9°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%71.8°F4.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%70.3°F3.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗