KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.0¢Risks 1.51u

WN2NO 94.0¢Risks 23.49u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.49u · WN2 −23.49u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:46+00:00	16.4%	19.6%	12.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	16.4%	19.6%	12.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	16.4%	19.6%	12.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	16.4%	19.6%	12.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	16.4%	7.0%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	16.4%	7.0%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	16.4%	7.0%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	16.4%	7.0%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	22.7%	7.0%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	22.7%	8.8%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00	22.7%	8.8%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	22.7%	8.8%	8.3%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	22.7%	8.8%	11.4%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	22.7%	8.8%	11.4%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	22.7%	8.8%	11.4%	22.9%	3.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	11.4%	22.9%	36.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	11.4%	22.9%	36.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	11.4%	22.9%	36.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	11.4%	22.9%	36.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	11.4%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	17.7%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	3.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	36.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	5.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	5.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	5.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	5.9%	8.8%	14.8%	26.4%	35.1%
2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00	5.9%	8.8%	14.8%	12.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	5.9%	1.6%	7.2%	12.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	5.9%	1.6%	7.2%	12.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	5.9%	1.6%	7.2%	12.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	10.3%	1.6%	7.2%	12.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	11.0%	1.6%	7.5%	12.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:27+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	7.5%	12.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	7.5%	12.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	7.5%	12.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	12.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	12.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	12.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	5.4%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:01+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	11.0%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	4.1%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	5.0%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	5.0%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	11.4%	1.5%	5.0%	5.9%	24.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00	9.5%	1.5%	5.0%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	9.5%	1.5%	5.0%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	9.5%	1.5%	5.0%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	9.5%	1.5%	5.0%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:33+00:00	9.5%	1.5%	2.4%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	9.5%	1.5%	2.4%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	9.5%	3.8%	2.4%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	9.5%	3.8%	2.4%	6.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	1.9%	3.8%	2.4%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	1.9%	3.8%	2.4%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:22+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	2.4%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	2.4%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	2.7%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	2.7%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	2.7%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	2.7%	6.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	9.9%	2.9%	2.7%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	9.9%	2.9%	2.7%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	9.9%	2.9%	2.7%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	9.9%	2.9%	2.7%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	9.9%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	9.8%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	9.8%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:31+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	14.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	8.5%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	8.5%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	8.5%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	8.5%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	8.5%	2.9%	4.0%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	8.5%	2.7%	2.3%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	8.5%	2.7%	2.3%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	8.5%	2.7%	2.3%	7.3%	5.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	5.8%	2.7%	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	5.8%	2.9%	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	5.8%	2.1%	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	5.8%	2.1%	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	5.8%	2.1%	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	5.8%	2.1%	2.8%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	5.8%	2.1%	2.8%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	5.8%	2.1%	2.8%	3.4%	5.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	2.8%	3.4%	3.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	2.8%	3.4%	3.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	2.8%	3.4%	3.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	2.8%	3.4%	3.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	2.8%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	6.6%	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	10.3%	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	10.3%	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	10.3%	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	3.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	10.3%	2.1%	1.8%	2.6%	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	22%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	4%	69.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗