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KOMA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
10%
ICON
4%
HRES
3%
EPS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.0¢Risks 1.51u
VS
WN2NO 94.0¢Risks 23.49u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.49u · WN2 −23.49u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-13 06:0010-20 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0010.0%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.9%————1.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0010.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%————3.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0025.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%————2.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.4%————2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:009.8%————5.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0011.0%————6.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:008.2%————10.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:006.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:008.0%————13.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:007.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:006.6%————11.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:007.2%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0010.8%————15.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0022.3%—13.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0021.4%————13.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:007.8%—18.9%——17.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0017.6%—13.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.0%—13.4%——9.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:008.1%—5.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.6%0.0%24.4%——8.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:008.3%—6.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:005.6%8.2%0.4%0.0%—6.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.6%—7.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.2%12.4%3.1%2.3%—2.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.7%—8.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:002.4%5.4%3.8%1.0%—1.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.3%—4.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:002.1%2.7%4.7%0.2%—1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.5%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.8%3.0%4.1%1.0%—1.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%3.8%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.4%1.7%2.7%0.4%—0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.8%1.2%1.1%——0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.7%0.8%0.8%0.5%—0.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.2%0.3%1.2%——0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.4%1.0%0.4%—0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.6%——0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%1.8%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.6%0.6%1.1%——0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.7%0.9%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%0.5%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.2%0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast22%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 14:000.0475
AIFS Single10%72.7°F4.6°F2026-10-16 18:000.0106
ICON4%69.7°F4.9°F2026-10-16 12:000.0012
IFS HRES3%68.8°F5.0°F2026-10-16 12:000.0007
National Blend2%74.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:000.0005
IFS Ensemble2%70.2°F4.1°F2026-10-16 00:000.0004
WeatherNext 22%70.7°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:000.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261020-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗