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KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
86%
AIFS
76%
ICON
66%
EPS
54%
HRES
49%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 67.7¢Risks 67.70u
VS
HRESNO 32.3¢Risks 32.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.30u · HRES −32.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00IFS HRES: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS HRES: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 42.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 49.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00ICON: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00ICON: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:0075.1%52.0%76.2%42.9%59.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:0075.1%52.0%87.0%42.9%59.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0075.1%52.0%87.0%42.9%59.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0075.1%52.0%87.0%42.9%59.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:0075.5%52.0%87.0%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0075.5%52.0%87.0%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0075.5%52.0%87.0%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0075.5%52.0%87.0%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0075.5%52.0%87.0%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:0075.5%53.5%86.4%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:0075.5%53.5%86.4%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0075.5%53.5%86.4%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0076.2%53.5%86.4%49.0%66.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0076.4%53.5%86.4%49.0%66.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 286%75.9°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single76%75.4°F4.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON66%74.0°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%73.0°F3.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%73.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%72.9°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES49%72.4°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗