KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

76%

66%

54%

49%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.7¢Risks 67.70u

HRESNO 32.3¢Risks 32.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.30u · HRES −32.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	6.5%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	2.0%	34.8%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	61.8%	41.6%	0.1%	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	54.4%	22.1%	15.2%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	60.6%	6.3%	35.1%	—	42.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	28.8%	54.0%	26.8%	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	40.9%	44.2%	30.0%	—	39.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	7.8%	35.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	29.9%	67.8%	11.8%	—	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	26.4%	63.2%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	23.7%	63.6%	17.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	51.9%	62.1%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	55.8%	68.7%	19.7%	—	33.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	48.0%	63.7%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	53.1%	65.1%	13.9%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	66.5%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	68.9%	54.4%	12.5%	—	36.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	60.0%	64.3%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	53.5%	59.2%	5.4%	0.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	77.5%	59.5%	12.6%	—	32.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	79.2%	59.9%	13.0%	87.6%	35.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	65.1%	11.5%	—	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	75.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	75.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	74.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	72.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗