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KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
35%
ICON
29%
AIFS
26%
HRES
15%
EPS
13%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 24.0¢Risks 24.00u
VS
EPSNO 76.0¢Risks 76.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.00u · EPS −76.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:0022.8%13.1%37.6%12.7%19.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:0022.8%13.1%37.6%12.7%19.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:0022.8%13.1%37.6%12.7%19.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:0022.8%13.1%44.2%12.7%19.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:0022.8%13.1%44.2%12.7%19.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:0022.8%13.1%44.2%12.7%19.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:0022.2%13.1%44.2%12.7%28.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:0022.2%13.1%44.2%12.7%28.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:0022.2%13.1%44.2%12.7%28.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:0022.2%13.1%44.2%12.7%28.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:0022.2%13.1%44.2%15.0%28.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:0022.2%13.1%34.9%15.0%28.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:0022.2%13.1%34.9%15.0%28.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:0022.2%13.1%34.9%15.0%28.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:0025.9%13.1%34.9%15.0%28.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:0025.9%13.1%34.9%15.0%28.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:0025.9%13.1%34.9%15.0%28.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:0025.9%13.1%34.9%15.0%28.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%78.0°F3.3°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%78.0°F5.2°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%75.9°F4.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
ICON29%74.1°F6.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single26%74.3°F5.0°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES15%71.5°F5.8°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble13%72.9°F4.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗