KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

29%

26%

15%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 24.0¢Risks 24.00u

EPSNO 76.0¢Risks 76.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.00u · EPS −76.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	9.6%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.2%	10.8%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	28.1%	13.7%	0.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	21.0%	4.6%	2.6%	—	11.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	24.5%	0.6%	9.0%	—	12.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	5.9%	18.4%	5.3%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	10.1%	11.6%	5.8%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.6%	7.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	5.2%	26.2%	1.1%	—	7.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	3.9%	21.5%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	3.0%	20.9%	1.9%	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	12.7%	19.0%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	14.2%	23.2%	1.9%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	9.6%	18.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	11.3%	18.3%	0.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	18.3%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	19.0%	10.4%	0.6%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.3%	14.8%	0.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	8.5%	11.0%	0.1%	0.0%	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	22.5%	10.2%	0.4%	—	2.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	22.7%	9.5%	0.4%	34.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	10.9%	0.2%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	29%	74.1°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	74.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	71.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	72.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗