KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

66%

65%

62%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.5¢Risks 78.50u

EPSNO 21.5¢Risks 21.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.50u · EPS −21.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:33+00:00	90.6%	57.6%	83.1%	60.0%	18.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	90.6%	57.6%	83.1%	60.0%	18.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	90.6%	64.7%	83.1%	60.0%	18.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	90.6%	64.7%	83.1%	60.0%	18.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	86.5%	64.7%	82.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	86.5%	64.7%	82.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:22+00:00	86.5%	61.9%	82.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	86.5%	61.9%	82.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	86.5%	61.9%	83.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	86.5%	61.9%	83.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	86.5%	61.9%	83.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	86.5%	61.9%	83.8%	59.9%	18.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	83.8%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	83.8%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	83.8%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	83.8%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	82.4%	61.9%	95.1%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	82.3%	61.9%	95.1%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	82.3%	61.9%	95.1%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	95.1%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	95.1%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	95.1%	65.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	95.1%	65.2%	65.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	80.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	78.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	76.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	75.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	73.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗