KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

66%

65%

62%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.5¢Risks 78.50u

EPSNO 21.5¢Risks 21.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.50u · EPS −21.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	3.0%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	53.9%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	1.1%	49.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	45.8%	44.4%	2.6%	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	47.1%	70.3%	2.9%	—	39.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	51.5%	82.1%	13.4%	—	48.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	42.9%	86.4%	20.1%	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	83.7%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	34.5%	81.0%	27.2%	—	45.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	34.2%	81.6%	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	66.2%	77.9%	45.6%	—	49.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	69.0%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	58.2%	74.1%	41.8%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	73.9%	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	79.7%	72.1%	44.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	73.5%	79.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	71.5%	78.1%	42.8%	—	41.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	83.7%	81.0%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	78.7%	76.2%	45.6%	84.5%	55.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	75.1%	0.0%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	80.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	78.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	76.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	75.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	73.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗