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KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
87%
WN2
75%
HRES
54%
EPS
52%
ICON
16%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.65u
VS
ICONNO 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.35u · ICON −48.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00IFS HRES: 53.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00IFS HRES: 53.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS HRES: 53.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 53.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00ICON: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00ICON: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00ICON: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:0087.3%52.2%75.3%53.8%16.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:0087.3%52.2%75.3%53.8%16.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:0087.3%52.2%75.3%53.8%16.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:0087.3%52.2%75.3%53.8%16.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single87%79.9°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%77.2°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES54%74.1°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend53%74.0°F7.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%73.9°F7.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON16%63.6°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗