KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

75%

54%

52%

16%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.65u

ICONNO 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.35u · ICON −48.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	2.1%	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	0.7%	42.6%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	38.9%	37.6%	1.7%	—	30.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	39.9%	63.6%	1.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	43.9%	76.6%	9.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	35.2%	81.6%	14.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	78.2%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	27.2%	74.9%	20.7%	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	26.7%	75.4%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	57.8%	70.9%	37.1%	—	40.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	46.4%	60.7%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	49.1%	66.1%	33.0%	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	65.7%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	72.1%	63.4%	34.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	64.7%	71.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	62.2%	69.7%	33.0%	—	32.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	76.3%	73.0%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	69.9%	66.9%	35.1%	77.0%	44.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	65.4%	0.0%	—	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	79.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	77.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	74.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	73.9°F	7.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	63.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 74°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗