KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

74%

52%

36%

30%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.0¢Risks 55.05u

HRESNO 45.0¢Risks 44.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.95u · HRES −44.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	79.5%	36.4%	82.8%	34.3%	13.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	79.3%	36.4%	82.7%	34.3%	13.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	82.7%	34.3%	13.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	82.7%	34.3%	13.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	82.7%	34.3%	13.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	87.6%	34.3%	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	87.6%	34.3%	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	87.6%	34.3%	13.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	87.6%	34.3%	63.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	87.6%	34.3%	63.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	87.6%	34.3%	63.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	87.6%	34.3%	63.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	87.6%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	78.8%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:03+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	86.4%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	84.1%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	84.1%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	79.3%	33.3%	84.1%	53.1%	63.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00	74.1%	33.3%	84.1%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	74.1%	33.3%	84.1%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	74.1%	33.3%	84.1%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	74.1%	33.3%	84.1%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	74.1%	33.3%	84.1%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	74.1%	32.3%	79.2%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	74.1%	32.3%	79.2%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	74.1%	32.3%	79.2%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	73.5%	32.3%	79.2%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	73.5%	32.4%	79.2%	44.6%	59.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	70.4%	33.3%	53.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	74.4%	33.3%	53.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	74.4%	33.3%	53.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	74.4%	33.3%	53.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	74.4%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	74.4%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	74.4%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	74.4%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	74.4%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	59.5%	31.1%	82.6%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	59.5%	31.1%	82.6%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	59.5%	31.1%	82.6%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	61.1%	31.1%	82.6%	28.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	61.2%	31.1%	82.7%	28.8%	68.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	61.2%	32.9%	82.7%	28.8%	68.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	61.2%	32.9%	82.7%	28.8%	68.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	61.2%	32.9%	82.7%	28.8%	68.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	61.2%	32.9%	73.2%	28.8%	68.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	61.2%	32.9%	73.2%	28.8%	68.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	61.2%	32.9%	73.2%	28.8%	68.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	73.2%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	73.2%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	73.2%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	73.2%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	73.2%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	67.7%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	76.6%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	80.5%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	80.5%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	70.0%	32.9%	80.5%	26.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	74.4%	32.9%	80.5%	26.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	74.4%	32.9%	80.5%	26.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	74.4%	32.9%	80.5%	26.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	74.4%	32.9%	80.5%	26.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	74.4%	36.3%	80.6%	29.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	74.4%	36.3%	80.6%	29.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	74.4%	36.3%	80.6%	29.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	74.4%	36.3%	80.6%	29.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00	74.5%	36.3%	80.6%	29.5%	52.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	74.5%	36.3%	80.6%	29.5%	52.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	79.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	79.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	76.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	74.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗