KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

24%

12%

10%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

ICONNO 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.35u · ICON −80.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	39.9%	18.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	39.9%	18.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	35.8%	18.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	35.8%	18.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	35.8%	18.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	38.4%	10.3%	35.8%	18.6%	32.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	35.8%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	35.8%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	35.8%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	35.8%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	24.0%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	24.0%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	24.0%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	30.2%	10.3%	24.0%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	32.2%	10.3%	24.0%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	32.2%	10.3%	24.0%	11.6%	7.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	32.2%	10.3%	24.0%	11.6%	7.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	79.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	78.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	73.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	71.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗