KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

24%

12%

10%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

ICONNO 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.35u · ICON −80.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.0%	23.3%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	13.7%	13.7%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	10.0%	24.9%	7.9%	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	0.3%	27.0%	1.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	9.3%	18.9%	7.5%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	6.9%	11.6%	5.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.2%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	16.7%	13.6%	2.9%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	9.2%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.6%	18.4%	2.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	17.1%	16.5%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	9.0%	14.2%	3.8%	15.3%	1.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	17.7%	—	—	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	79.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	78.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	73.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	71.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗