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KOMA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
17%
AIFS
7%
WN2
6%
HRES
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 8.8¢Risks 4.40u
VS
EPSNO 91.2¢Risks 45.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.60u · EPS −45.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T04:42:03+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T04:42:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T04:42:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:03+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00IFS HRES: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T04:42:03+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:0010-16 22:3810-17 02:2510-17 06:13
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:007.2%0.9%8.2%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:007.2%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:007.2%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:007.2%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:007.4%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:007.4%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:007.4%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:007.4%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:03+00:007.4%0.9%7.3%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:007.4%0.9%6.1%2.6%16.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:007.4%0.9%6.1%2.6%16.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON17%79.9°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single7%81.2°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%81.6°F5.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
National Blend5%77.0°F7.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%77.0°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast2%77.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%73.6°F6.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 22:38 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Omaha · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗