KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

80%

71%

58%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

HRESNO 25.8¢Risks 25.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.85u · HRES −25.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	86.7%	60.3%	92.1%	45.1%	27.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	86.7%	60.3%	92.1%	45.1%	27.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	86.7%	60.3%	92.1%	45.1%	27.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	76.2%	60.3%	92.1%	45.1%	27.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	76.2%	60.3%	92.1%	45.1%	27.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:02+00:00	76.2%	58.1%	92.1%	45.1%	27.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	76.2%	58.1%	92.1%	45.1%	27.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	76.2%	58.1%	75.3%	45.1%	27.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	76.2%	58.1%	75.3%	45.1%	27.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	76.2%	58.1%	75.3%	45.1%	27.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	76.2%	58.1%	75.3%	45.1%	27.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	75.3%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	75.3%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	75.3%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	75.3%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	74.7%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	74.7%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	74.7%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	71.7%	58.1%	74.7%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	80.3%	58.1%	74.7%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	80.3%	58.1%	74.7%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	80.3%	58.1%	74.7%	56.2%	42.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	82.4%	70.8%	97.1%	68.6%	88.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	82.4%	70.8%	97.1%	68.6%	88.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	82.4%	70.8%	97.1%	68.6%	88.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	82.4%	70.8%	89.7%	68.6%	88.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	82.4%	70.8%	89.7%	68.6%	88.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	82.4%	70.8%	89.7%	68.6%	88.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	89.7%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	89.7%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	89.7%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	89.7%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	89.7%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	90.1%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	90.1%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	80.8%	70.8%	90.1%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	79.7%	70.8%	90.1%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	79.7%	70.8%	90.1%	58.2%	87.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	79.7%	70.8%	90.1%	58.2%	87.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	77.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	87%	79.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	76.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	74.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	73.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗